Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
